 Who's got your vote?From 'Les Mis' to 'Lincoln' to 'Linings', predictions for Sunday's Academy Awards By Pete McQuaid, pmcquaid@lowellsun.com Posted:
02/21/2013 09:15:33 AM EST
Predictions for this Sunday's Oscar ceremony. If I was a betting man, I'd certainly almost maybe feel confident of some of these:
Best Animated Feature
- What Should Win: Frankenweenie
- What Will Win: Brave
The Academy loves Pixar -- Pixar's won six out of the eight times it's been nominated in this category. But Brave wasn't anything special. Frankenweenie was. Tim Burton made a black and white stop-motion film that managed to be funny, thrilling and heartwarming, in spite of its disgusting-looking characters.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Who Should (And Will) Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Somehow, Tony Kushner turned congressional caterwauling into not just high entertainment, but comedy. By creating enjoyable supporting roles for veterans like James Spader and Tommy Lee Jones to fill out the cast behind the eloquent, rambling Daniel Day-Lewis, Kushner showed that the process behind passing an Amendment doesn't have to be as boring as it probably was (and still is) in real life.
 PETE'S PICKS: Lincoln (Best Adapted Screenplay), Frankenweenie (Animated Feature), and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook (Best Actress)
- Who Should Win: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
- Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Django's not a bad choice in this category; while it had structural problems and lacked that amazing, iconic scene that's in most of Tarantino's movies, it was definitely his funniest and most audacious script yet. Moonrise Kingdom was flawless in almost every respect however, with Wes Anderson's heightened kid-speak and idiosyncratic ambition combining to make something truly beautiful.
Best Supporting Actor
- Who Should (And Will) Win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
The toughest category to call. Christoph Waltz is the most enjoyable to watch, but his role is ostensibly the good-guy counterpart to his winning turn in Inglourious Basterds. Alan Arkin and Tommy Lee Jones really stretched themselves by playing old, sarcastic cranks. Hoffman's great as Lite Ron Hubbard, but Silver Linings Playbook was a phenomenal return to form for De Niro, who will win because it's his first nomination in 20 years and because he's been snubbed for the three Meet the Parents movies.
Best Supporting Actress
- Who Should (And Will) Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
It's all over but the crying -- and there will be crying. Hathaway's had this award locked up since the first Les Misérables trailer came out, but you won't know it from what will likely be an over-dramatic, faux-breathless acceptance speech. This award season has shown how annoying she really is -- but man, she can sing that song.
Best Actress
- Who Should (And Will) Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actress is a crowded field this year. Wins for icy, foul-mouthed Jessica Chastain or the transformative Emmanuelle Riva would be justified. And it's taking so much willpower not to choose Quvenzhané Wallis. Jennifer Lawrence deserves it though for her magnetic performance as the not-as-crazy-as-Bradley-Cooper-but-still-kind-of-crazy Tiffany Maxwell, if only because her character studies the "Moses Supposes" dance from Singin' in the Rain.
Best Actor
- Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
- Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Daniel Day-Lewis will almost certainly win, cementing his status as the greatest actor of the past 20 years with his third Best Actor statue. It was a superb, iconic performance, but once you get over the "OMG, that's Lincoln!" phase, the role doesn't require much emotional range. Joaquin Phoenix looks almost unrecognizable and he cultivated a dynamic character from scratch, both physically and emotionally. Too bad this just isn't his year.
Best Director
- Who Should Win: Michael Haneke, Amour
- Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Spielberg's direction in Lincoln ... meh. Most of it was pretty unimaginative with a weirdly heavy color palette (at least those Lowell-bred Ymittos candles look good). The strength of that movie is the screenplay and performances, not the direction. With Amour, Haneke created a brutal portrait of the feeling of love in the time of death, utilizing torturous long takes to make us appreciate the film once -- and then never be able to watch it again.
Best Picture
- What Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
- What Will Win: Argo
The Ben Affleck Redemption Tour will culminate on Sunday with a predictable win for Argo, a slick, entertaining film whose only memorable performance was by Affleck's shirtless pectorals. The real travesty is that Zero Dark Thirty, a thrilling shocker that perfectly encapsulates our current culture, never got the respect it deserved. It was probably too apolitical (or just too accurate) for its own good. Whatever -- at least it'll allow Seth MacFarlane to make some nice torture jokes.
Follow Pete McQuaid on Twitter @sweetestpete for reactions/rants during the Oscar telecast. | 
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